The House that Boom Built

The NBA Finals kicks off tonight at 6 pm for those of us on the West Coast. I guess you could say that this is the absolute latest time I could do a preview for this game, but heck, I decided instead of taking a nap I would put some of this free time to good use.

We are now fast approaching the matchup we have all (supposedly) been waiting for. But, ever since the huge trade/series of trades that brought ring-less superstars KG and Ray Allen to Boston up through the beginning of the season when Kobe, Bynum, and the rest of the Lakers came storming out of gates and even up until Pau came over in the Infamous Memphis Plundering of Oh ‘8 (also known as the Kupchak Miracle) we have been hearing about the possibility of a Lakers Celtics final series matchup. Now that it has happened, no surprise, ESPN and all our friends in the sports media have jumped on it and in true ESPN fashion, have not stopped talking about it, discussing it, analyzing it, and building it up since it was official.

Anyways, now that we are here, it seems only fitting that I take a little swing at previewing/analyzing this monumental, historical, David Stern wet dream of a Finals Series. Follow me after the J-U-M-P…

First and foremost, I would like to say that in this series, I really am pulling for the Celtics. I think KG, for the kind of competitor he is and the kind of intensity he brings to the game, I would love to see him get one. Its kind of the same way I felt about Reggie at the end of his career. However, for Garnett it is different in that his legacy is more or less secure. For that reason I say that I would love to see him get one, not that he deserves one. I think it is pretty clear that the Garnett we are seeing now is very different from the Garnett that took Cassell and Sprewell too the Western Conference Finals. The biggest drop off has been in the mid range jumper that basically set up the rest of his game. He doesn’t hit that shot quite as often anymore and when he does (ie. at select times during the Piston’s game) it is almost impossible to stop the Celtics. Anyways, what Garnett has done in the length of his career at Minnesota and up into this Finals run with Boston, is nothing short of legendary. The intensity and desire he brings to the game is unmatched and he is the type of player that never takes a play off. On top of that, he is one of the strongest character guys we’ve ever seen. In Minnesota, especially as the Timberwolves were falling out of contention, this was nothing if not obvious. Because of this, I don’t think Garnett’s legacy will ever be questioned, at most he will be lumped in with other greats who never won the big one (Ewing, Reggie, AI) and that is not humble company. To me, a ring here would not change the way I see him, everyone with half a brain knew that KG was capable of turning around a franchise, he has been considered or argued to be the top big man in the league for many years. I don’t think one championship in a year where everything came together perfectly would do anything more than confirm what most already knew. (Now if he goes on here to win 2 or even 3 more championships, we will be having a completely different discussion)

On the other side of the equation, everyone is talking about how much Kobe wants to prove that he can do it without Shaq. Among all the dramatic undertones that we love so much to talk about in sports and especially in this Finals series, this is, to me is the most important. Kobe is a player, more than any in the league, who is almost fueled by hatred. Enough has been written about his killer instinct and his hatability, but as much as we would like to lump all intensity together and put blanket labels on players like “competitor”, Kobe is a case that is on a completely (Jordan-esque?) different level. We are seeing less of it now that there is less pressure on him and of course less criticism now that the Lakers are winning, but I think it is still undoubtedly there. He has an almost insatiable appetite to win and win in a way that does not allow the W to speak for itself. We saw it when he threw down a vicious double clutch jam in the process of knocking the Spurs off of their throne. He has a way of wanting to win in a way as to really make a statement and as much as he says the criticisms don’t bother them, I really think they do. More than that, they fuel him. If this series gets close, this is an instinct that will make itself apparent and hopefully for the Lakers really give them an edge.

For all this build up, from me and from the rest of the world, I don’t think it will be that close. I don’t think it will be close enough so as to have one guy either KG or Kobe really be the single determining factor in a victory. In the end, I think the Celtics just match up poorly with the Lakers. The Celtics make their money on team defense. Neither Rajon Rondo or Ray Allen are above average defenders so they do a lot of funneling and trapping, which amounts to steals for the guards and blocks for the bigs. However the Lakers are the picture of offensive efficiency and the triangle offense is most basically a movement offense. What the Celtics have made their bread and butter doing to teams like Cleveland and Detroit will be almost impossible against the Lakers.

If the Celtics do what they have been saying which is to not double team or trap Kobe, the only person that can keep up with him is probably James Posey who is pretty much a schmuck on offense (okay he shoots threes, blah blah blah, for the amount he shoots, too many, its almost moot). Then there is no one long enough or physical enough to defend both Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol and then who are Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo going to guard.

Its boring talking about the technical side of basketball and so many things could change. SO, I could be and am often wrong about all these facets of the game. To me, front court, back court, bench, the Lakers are just far more balanced on the offensive end of the floor. On top of that, for all the talk about how difficult it would be to come out of the Western Conference, Boston has had a far more tiresome journey to the Finals. The straw that really breaks the camel’s back for me is that Doc Rivers is not a very good coach. He is a good coach, but not a very good or even a great coach. If we really look back at the history of the NBA championships, in a 7 game series (as opposed to the one game Superbowl) coaching is a giant factor. To name the most recent examples of mismatches, Johnson-Riley, Popovich-Brown, Popovich-Scott, Jackson-Scott, Jackson-Bird, Popovich-Van Gundy, etc., etc., etc.

In the NBA Finals, experienced and great coaching wins out all of the time. We’ve seen a lot of times when coaching matchups are even, but when they aren’t (this one isn’t) it almost unanimously favors the more experienced coach. IN FACT, cool stat of the day, in the more than 20 years since the Celtics last won the Championship, there have only been 6 different coaches to lead a team to an NBA Championships win.

Whatever happens, whether I am wrong or right, I think we can all toast to the fact that we will (hopefully) never have to see another one of those weird mash up NBA commercials. Though, predictably enough, the NBA just came out with the Kobe-KG one if y’all want to go and check that one out. All I can say is that this one makes a whole lot mores sense than Pierce-Bibby, Howard-Bosh, Fisher-Camby, Jamison-Wallace (WTF) or any of those other combinations that I can only assume will end up as some weird future Halloween mask from hell.

Bottom Line: Lakers in Six, it will go to 7 if and only if Boston takes both Game 1 and 2

-E